SWOT Analysis of Raj Thackeray’s speech…
2009: काँग्रेस, राष्ट्रवादी चांगले आणि शिवसेना भाजप वाईट. 2014: भाजप चांगला आणि शिवसेना, काँग्रेस, राष्ट्रवादी वाईट. 2019: काँग्रेस, राष्ट्रवादी चांगले आणि भाजप, शिवसेना वाईट. 2022: भाजप चांगला आणि शिवसेना, काँग्रेस, राष्ट्रवादी वाईट. अरे भाई कहना क्या चाहते हो ??? This is not written by me. It was a tweet from a Yuva Sena functionary about changing stances of Raj Thackeray, founder of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. I like Raj Thackeray. I love his speeches. His name pulls crowd and No, I don’t like him not because he knows my father since donkey’s years, or since he owned a small restaurant in Raj Bade Chowk in early 90’s in Mumbai’s Shivaji Park area, this man, Raj Thackeray has that certain charisma yaar! Unfortunately though the number of public that attends his rallies don’t convert into votes, today it will be comfortable to say that Raj Thackeray has seen it all. He has faced quite a lot of topsy-turvy events in his political life since his party MNS’s inception. MNS won around 13 MLA’s in 2009, won corporator’s in Mumbai and Nashik in its early days, but Raj Thackeray just couldn’t sustain the early success. Today even if the party has 1 MLA and few corporator’s, but the aura of the man still intrigues me; and Mind you even today his name is taken in the same breath when someone mentions Maharashtra Politics, Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray and Devendra Fadnavis!
Coming to his speech on the occasion of Gudi Padwa; it surely did raise quite a few eyebrows. On the social media, if activists and spokespersons of Shiv Sena Congress & NCP did remind Raj of his previous stance taken on various occasions, it came as a surprise when the BJP social media warriors weren’t too comfortable seeing Raj siding the BJP. The BJP reminded their followers of Raj’s stand when the Pulwama attack had happened, his comment on NSA’s Ajit Doval or his constant criticisms on Modi-Shah time-to-time. BJPians haven’t forgotten this. Someone also quipped that Raj was only attacking the MVA only because he knows what is in store if you speak against the BJP now with Central agencies being quite active in Maharashtra. But if you ask me, I am of the view that in politics, no one is a permanent friend/foe. If today MNS is on BJP’s side, where is the harm? For Raj it is a matter of survival of his and his party and for the upcoming BMC elections. In fact, for the first time I could see a bit of a tamed MVA government when they saw what backlash a certain Devendra Fadnavis, Mohit Kamboj or Kirit can do from otherwise a ‘lie low’ party like the BJP in Maharashtra. In fact if the muscle power of the MNS is added to the BJP, it will only be advantageous as even the BJP will attract Marathi votes. There is a huge section which still has faith in the name ‘Thackeray’.
At the same time why couldn’t Raj Thackeray do what an Arvind Kejriwal could do in Delhi for all these years and now in Punjab, let’s find out through a SWOT analysis.
SWOT Analysis
- Strength: In Maharashtra when the ‘Hindu’ card has been comfortably put below the carpet by Shivsena, it is in fact MNS which can be the flag bearer of Hinduism now in Mumbai, Maharashtra. They have the ‘fire’ and ‘muscle power’ to stand by the Hindus if time comes. Marathi Manoos feel cheated by the Shivsena today and what better option for them to decide (only if they want to stick to the ‘Thackeray’ surname), than Raj? Also Raj’s speeches attract the younger generation too. Also, his biggest strength is that Raj Thackeray knows when to slide, when to join hands. He has proven his working style in Nashik Corporation. He has good contacts and interpersonal relations with the big Corporates of Maharashtra. Knows the ‘real history’ and sides historians who are left in lurch by other Hindu claiming parties if a controversy arises.
- Weakness: Social media is full today reading about Raj Thackeray’s ‘habits’ and starting the day to meet people only in the afternoon. He is not easily accessible. People will meet him only when Raj wants them to. All established names like Ram KAdam, Darekar have left the party. Son Amit is not able to create an impact the way Aaditya Thackeray or Nitesh Rane have done. Ameya Khopkar, Sandeep Deshpande and Bala Nandgaokar are the only known faces left in the party. No second line of leadership in the party. It’s a ONE MAN SHOW.
- Opportunity: It will replace Shiv Sena in coming 7 to 8 years. Read the history. In 1966 when the Shivsena was formed it was ONLY in 1985 after the death of PM Indira Gandhi and when Sharad Pawar joined Congress, Shiv Sena had tasted success. As it was at this time when for the first time Shivsena had managed to grab the BMC and Bhujbal was made the Mayor. Shivsena tasted success only after 24 years of its inception. Then in 1987-88 it was for the first time, in the Datta Samant era, BJP and Sena had joined hands and it was in 1990 that Sena got 54 MLAs in Vidhan Sabha and also had a grip over the BMC. It took 24 years. MNS achieved success in the first 3 to 4 years of its inception in 2009 Vidhan Sabha elections. But then there has been lull. So if Shiv Sena has joined the MVA, it is a huge opportunity for MNS to fill in the boots of Sena. Right teaming of parties and ideologies will set them for the future course.
- Threats: Threat to the MNS is its own boss. I am told the habits are changing and so are the timing of the meetings. At 11, the day starts. Also Sharad Pawar’s comment of Raj going into hibernation is unfortunately true! Also North Indians residents of Mumbai (a lot of them) and Maharashtra don’t have a positive opinion of MNS. So the biggest threat is to break this mold. MNS will have to activate its people and for that the funding, strengthening party workers all across the state and raising right issues is a must! Out of sight, is surely out of mind these days!!
Vikrant Hemant Joshi.
